Evolution of the COVID-19 Pandemic in El Salvador Applying SIR-Type Simulations

Gomez-Escoto, Rafael, Hernández, Kevin and Ismael, Arce (2020) Evolution of the COVID-19 Pandemic in El Salvador Applying SIR-Type Simulations. Universidad de El Salvador.

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Abstract

This article studies the epidemiological dynamics of COVID-19 in El Salvador, using deterministic models such as SIR, which is based on the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered scheme, with constant transmission and recovery rates, and introducing the parameter of the global mortality rate. The simulations of the SIR model were modified in order to consider the intervention in the social dynamics of the population, through measures such as social distancing, appropriate hygiene, and mandatory quarantine at the country level. These measures have been managed in order to mitigate the evolution of the pandemic in the country. The 4,600 people held in Containment Centers had been assigned as the base population for simulations, because by April 5, 90% of the cases were confirmed among this group. The overall mortality rate has been assumed to be 3.5%, according to general international reports. The results were classified by scenarios: optimistic, semi-critical and critical with peaks of infection between 4% and 7.4% of the total population considered. It was established that 15% of the confirmed cases reach critical condition, while 3.5% of the total infected cases might die. The simulations are carried out since April 5, but assuming March 18 as the zero day, which corresponds to the first positive case identified in El Salvador.

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Creators:

Creators	Email	ORCID
Gomez-Escoto, Rafael	gomez.escoto@ues.edu.sv	UNSPECIFIED
Hernández, Kevin	kevin.hernandez@ues.edu.sv	UNSPECIFIED
Ismael, Arce	ismael.arce@ues.edu.sv	UNSPECIFIED